Tuesday, October 30, 2018

The Housing Affordability Crisis

 - by New Deal democrat

This morning both the Case-Shiller House Price Indexes for September, and Third Quarter Median Asking Rent were reported, as was the rental vacancy rate.  Together they reveal that all types of shelter costs, whether housing or apartments, are at or near record levels.

The Case Shiller 20 City index was reported up 5.5% YoY, and the National Index was up 5.8% YoY. Meanwhile median household income, as reported by Sentier Research one month ago, was only up 2.8% YoY.  So while the media is generally reported the "good news" that house prices are appreciating less than the 6%+ rate they had been recently, "real" homeownership costs continue to be near a record multiple of household income, as shown in this graph from Political Calculations:

Meanwhile median asking rent increased about 5% just in the last Quarter, and is up over 10% from one year ago:

Because, *relatively speaking,* renting is still less expensive than purchasing a house, the rental vacancy rate continues near record lows:

A few years ago, HUD put out a report speaking of a "rental affordability crisis." I think we are past that now. All forms of housing costs, whether ownership or renting, are at crisis levels.