The Bonddad Blog
Still nerdy after all these years
Tuesday, March 6, 2018
The significance of the 1948 recession
- by New Deal democrat
The yield curve never inverted between the early 1930s and the mid 1950s. And yet there were four recessions during that time.
For that reason I am very leery of over-reliance on that metric as a necessary component of recession forecasting.
In particular, the biggest inflation that occurred ever since 1920 happened in 1947-48 -- an even bigger event than in the 1970s. The Fed pretty much sat on its hands. And yet there was a recession.
What would a case study of the 1948 recession show? I take a look
over at XE.com
New Deal democrat