Thursday, July 28, 2016

Bonddad's Thursday Linkfest

New Orders

 New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $9.3 billion or 4.0 percent to $219.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down two consecutive months, followed a 2.8 percent May decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 3.9 percent. 

Capital Goods

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June  decreased $8.2 billion or 11.3 percent to $64.8 billion.  Shipments decreased $1.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $71.8 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $7.0 billion or 1.0 percent to $700.5 billion. Inventories decreased $1.1billion or 0.6 percent to $169.6 billion. 

5-Year Chart of Durable Goods Orders and Capital Goods Numbers

1-Year Chart of the XLIs

1-Year Chart of the XLI/SPY Ratio

Valuation of the 10 Largest XLI Members 

Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP was estimated to have increased by 0.6% in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2016 compared with growth of 0.4% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016.

Output increased in 2 of the main industrial groupings within the economy in Quarter 2 2016. Services increased by 0.5% and production increased by 2.1%. In contrast, construction decreased by 0.4% and agriculture decreased by 1.0%.

GDP was 2.2% higher in Quarter 2 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

Chart from the ONS 1Release 

1-Year Chart of the EWU ETF

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

1-Year Chart of the 30-2 spread

1-Year Chart of the 10-2 Spread