Wednesday, December 2, 2015

The importance of record November vehicle sales

 - by New Deal democrat

The preliminary information shows that vehicle sales for November set yet another post-recession record: 

This is definitely *not* something that happens on the cusp of a recession.  If the "shallow industrial recession" I have been writing about for most of this year is deepening, it hasn't deepened enough to take down the consumer.

The 2001 recession was largely driven by a downturn in business investments -- but even there, vehicle sales did decline from a peak one year prior to the commencement of the downturn:

If the global downturn were being imported into the US via the stronger $ with sufficient force to cause not just a more pronounced slowdown, but an outright contraction, it would show up in fewer vehicle  purchases. We're simply not there.