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by New Deal democrat
My Weekly Indicator post is
up at XE.com. Last week's poor tax withholding report was as anticipated an aberration, but most coincident indicators remain weak.
On a broader note, I am increasingly convinced that we are past the midpoint of this expansion - probably in the 6th inning, to use a baseball analogy. But that doesn't mean that I have turned negative, or that a recession is near. Basically it just means that we are getting less "bang for the buck" from the fundamental trends that have underpinned the expansion.