Saturday, August 8, 2015

Weekly Indicators for August 3 -7 at

 - by New Deal democrat

My Weekly Indicator post is up at  Last week's poor tax withholding report was as anticipated an aberration, but most coincident indicators remain weak.

On a broader note, I am increasingly convinced that we are past the midpoint of this expansion - probably in the 6th inning, to use a baseball analogy.  But that doesn't mean that I have turned negative, or that a recession is near.  Basically it just means that we are getting less "bang for the buck" from the fundamental trends that have underpinned the expansion.