Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Yet Another Doomer Fail

Just a quick note (picking up NDD's slack).

On Sunday we were told over at the great Orange Satan, "Which means the housing market rally has literally topped out and won't be coming back any time this year. I seriously doubt that the economic forecasts have accounted for that."

Today we learned, "This is the highest sales rate since May 2008.  Even with the increase in sales over the previous two years, new home sales are still just above the bottom for previous recessions...
This was well above expectations of 441,000 sales in May, and sales were up 16.9% year-over-year."
Now, there are issues with the housing market.  Affordability is becoming a problem in some areas (San Francisco comes to mind) and with the lack of meaningful income growth, some people are getting priced out of the market, which will lower demand.  And interest rates are becoming an issue.
However, doomers have one perspective: "WE'RE GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!!"  Unfortunately, economic analysis requires an understanding of nuance, which is clearly lacking on their part. 


NDD here:  Well, ummm, in fairness, I don't have a big problem with that diary, insofar as I forecast a  housing slowdown since late last year, and the most popular piece I've ever had picked up at Business Insider was when I wrote that the cutoff in extended unemployment benefits would have a nasty impact on the economy, particularly in the first quarter.

That writer also believes that 2Q 2014 GDP is likely to be negative, but if you follow my Weekly Indicators column, you won't be surprised that my opinion is, if 2Q GDP comes in negative, that means Hell has officially Frozen Over. No bleeping way.

P.S.  I'll have a post up later today discussing today's new home sales number.  It'll be nuanced ....