- by New Deal democrat
Quarterly and monthly data reported in the last week included weak, but positive GDP growth in the 2nd quarter. Real median wages were up. Employment was positive in trend, and the unemployment rate dropped slightly. The internals were poorer, with aggregate hours, average wages, and the manufacturing workweek (one of the 10 LEI's) down. Consumer confidence (another component of the LEI) was also down. Personal income was up, but less than spending, so the savings rate went down.
There is evidence that the moribund manufacturing sector is coming to life again, with a positive Chicago PMI, improved positive ISM manufacturing index (and greatly improved new orders, another component of the LEI). Factory orders were also up.
Let's start this week's look at the high frequency weekly indicators again by looking at the Oil choke collar:
Oil prices and usage
- Oil $106.94 up $2.24 w/w
- Gas $3.65 down -0.04 w/w
- Usage 4 week average YoY up +3.2%
Interest rates and credit spreads
- 5.25% BAA corporate bonds down -0.04%
- 2.57% 10 year treasury bonds up +0.03%
- 2.68% credit spread between corporates and treasuries down -0.07%
Mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association:
- -3% w/w purchase applications
- +5% YoY purchase applications
- -4% w/w refinance applications
- YoY this week +9.0%
Real estate loans, from the FRB H8 report:
- -0.5% w/w
- -0.1% YoY
- +1.9% from its bottom
- +1.3% w/w
- +2.3% m/m
- +8.6% YoY Real M1
- +0.2% w/w
- +1.6% m/m
- +5.1% YoY Real M2
The American Staffing Association Index rose 1 to 95. It is up +2.9% YoY
Initial jobless claims
- 326,000 down -17,000
- 4 week average 341,250 down -5000
- $165.2 B for the month of July vs. $144.0 B last year, up +$21.2 B or +14.7%
- $141.2 B for the last 20 reporting days vs. $130.6 B last year, up +10.6 B or +8.1%
Daily tax withholding has improved to the middle part of its YoY range compared with its YoY average comparison in the last 7 months. Initial claims remain within their recent range of between 325,000 to 375,000, and have flattened out just as they have in the last 3 springs and summers.
Railroad transport from the AAR
- +7200 carloads up 2.5% YoY
- +6100 carloads or +3.7% ex-coal
- +6000 or +2.8% intermodal units
- +13,500 or +2.5% YoY total loads
- ICSC -1.6% w/w +2.0% YoY
- Johnson Redbook +3.3% YoY
- Gallup daily consumer spending 14 day average at $91 up $14 YoY
Bank lending rates
JoC ECRI Commodity prices
- up +0.02 to 123.79 w/w
- +6.08 YoY
Positives include bank rates, money supply, jobless claims, and commodities. Consumer spending is still very positive as measured by Gallup and as measured by Johnson Redbook, but only weakly positive as measured by the ICSC. Temporary staffing was quite positive for the first time in many weeks. Tax withholding for the month of July turned out quite positive.
Shipping rates were the one neutral.
The big picture remains the spike in interest rates and the concomitant decline in mortgage activity, both long leading indicators, as well as the spike in prices of gas and oil. Short leading and coincident indicators remain positive.
Have a nice weekend.