Friday, May 31, 2013

Emerging Market ETFs are At Critical Support

H/T the Reformed Broker:

From ETF Trends:

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEArca: EEM) declined 4.2% year-to-date and is testing the 200-day simple moving average, the third test in under a year.

Since climbing above its long-term trend line last year, the fund has survived two tests of this indicator, once in November 2012 and again in April 2013.

The emerging markets have been underperforming. The S&P 500 index is up 17.4% so far this year and is roughly 9% above its 200-day moving average. The MSCI World Index is up 11% this year. [Is the Party Over for High-Yield Emerging Market Bond ETFs?]

If emerging market stocks break below their 200-day moving average, it could be a warning signal for global stocks as the emerging markets are more sensitive to credit risks and economic growth.

This is something that I have noticed in individual emerging markets.  The biggest drop has been south of the border where the entire Latin American ETF complex is in a downtrend.  We're also seeing weaker performance in India, Brazil and the Eastern European ETFs.   

Here is the chart from the article: