- by New Deal democrat
There was little in the way of monthly data for December this week. Consumer confidence increased. Import and export prices decreased. The trade balance worsened. None of these are particularly big numbers.
So let's turn to the high frequency weekly indicators:
Housing metrics
Housing prices
- YoY this week. +2.4%
Real estate loans, from the FRB H8 report:
- +0.2% w.w
- +2.3% YoY
- +2.9% from its bottom
Mortgage applications
- +13% w/w purchase applications
- -8% YoY purchase applications
- +12% w/w refinance applications
Interest rates and credit spreads
- +0.10%% to 4.71% BAA corporate bonds
- +0.11% to 1.87% 10 year treasury bonds
- -.01% to 2.84% credit spread between corporates and treasuries
Money supply
M1
- -0.8%% w/w
- +1.5% m/m
- +11.0% YoY Real M1
M2
- +0.7% w/w
- +1.8% m/m
- +6.6% YoY Real M2
Consumer spending
- ICSC -4.2% w/w +4.2% YoY
- Johnson Redbook +2.1% YoY
- Gallup daily consumer spending 14 day average $83 up $15 YoY
Oil prices and usage
- Oil $93.56 up $0.47 w/w
- gas $3.30 flat w/w
- Usage 4 week average YoY -2.3%
Employment metrics
Initial jobless claims
- 371,000 down 1,000
- 4 week average 365,750 up 5,750
- down 5 to 89 w/w
- $183.9 B (adjusted for 2013 tax changes) vs. $171.8 B +7.0% YoY last 20 days
- $66.9 B (unadjusted) vs. $69.1 B down -2.2 B 1st 7 days of January monthly YoY
Transport
Railroad transport
- -33,200 or -12.1% carloads YoY
- -24,800 or -19% carloads ex-coal
- -15,600 or -8.0% intermodal units
- -39,800 or -9% YoY total loads
- 16 of 20 types of carloads down YoY, 1 less than last week
- Harpex up 4 at 356
- Baltic Dry Index up 54 to 760
Bank lending rates
- 0.24 TED spread flat w/w
- 0.2057 LIBOR down .002 w/w
JoC ECRI Commodity prices
- up 0.98 to 127.05 w/w
- +4.13 YoY
On the other hand, consumer spending, especially as measured by Gallup, remains quite strong. Money supply, interest rate spreads, and bank lending rates are also very positive. Tax withholding is strong. Gas prices remain accomodative. House prices and loans are positive, although purchases and refinancings of mortgages are mixed this week. Shipping rates are up slightly.
I am most interested in when or whether the 2% increase in withholding tax rates will have an effect on consumers, although I wouldn't have expected it to show up yet.
Have a nice weekend.