Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Morning Market Analysis

The top chart (SPY, 30 minute time frame), shows that after the big move higher at the beginning of the year, prices have meandered higher.  There is support around the 145-145.5 level.  The lower chart (SPY, daily time frame) shows that the daily action has been printing small candles on declining volume.  While prices have advanced through technical resistance, there really isn't any meaningful rally since.

Since the start of the year, oil prices have have been inching higher, slowly approaching the 38.2% Fib level.  Prices are now about the 200 day EMA, with the 10 and 20 day EMA crossing over the 200 day EMA.  While the CMR is giving a very strong buy signal, the MACD is approaching a sell signal.

The daily chart of the Russian market (top chart) shows that prices have been rallying since mid-November.  Prices have broken through the 200 day EMA and are now just below 6-month highs.  The lower chart (weekly time frame) shows that prices are right at year long consolidation range between ~24 and 30.

The yen has dropped a little over 12.5% since the end of last summer.  Also note the severity of the sell-off; traders continue to dump the currency.