Initial Jobless Claims: comparing Katrina and Sandy
- by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims fell 23,000 this past week but were well above the trend before Sandy hit at the end of October. Is this something we should be concerned about, or is this still the effect of the hurricane? A comparison with jobless claims after Hurricane Katrina suggests that while most of the effect has worn off, the entire effect won't abate for a few more weeks.
Here are initial jobless claims beginning with the first week of August 2005:
As you can see, the effects of Katrina on jobless claims weren't felt until 2 weeks later, when claims shot up by about 100,000. After two weeks, most of the effect wore off, but claims were still at least 30,000 (and as much as 65,000) above the pre-Katrina baseline for 4 more weeks.
Now here is the current data beginning with the first week of October:
Just as with Katrina, claims didn't spike up for 2 weeks. Just as with Katrina, most of the spike has disappeared 2 weeks later, but we are still significantly (about 30,000) above the pre-Sandy trend. If the pattern holds true, we will have 3 more weeks of elevated data due to Sandy before the underlying trend is discovered.
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The Bonddad Economic History Project
At the beginning of 2012, I decided to start looking at the actual, statistical history of the US economy starting in 1950. The reason is simple: to find out what really happened. So, when you see title of a post that begins with a year such as 1957, followed by "employment" or "Fed policy: you know what it's for. You can also access the information by typing in BE for Bonddad econ and a year to find information on a particular year.
Here is a link to pages that contain links to all the posts on the years listed.