Thursday, October 25, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

Oil -- which had been stranded at the 10/20/50 day EMA for the last few weeks -- has finally sold-off below levels established earlier this month.  Notice especially the increase in volatility (although it is still at a low level) and the weakening of the overall price level.  This is a chart that is moving into correction mode.

After rallying for a little over a week, the Chinese market is consolidating near 5-month highs.  The real key to this chart is whether the 10 day EMA holds or not.

Although they have broken through resistance, grains haven't made strong move higher yet.  The chart is sending mixed signals in that regard.  While the MACD has given a but signal, volume is weak and the CMF is negative.  

After breaking through resistance in the 162 area and rallying to 174, GLD prices have fallen back to the 165 price handle -- which is also close to the 61.8% Fib level.  Like any correction, we see a declining momentum and weakening CMF readings.

The weekly chart places the price action in needed, long-term perspective.  Prices are consolidating, with support a bit above 150 and below the 174 price level.