Thursday, August 2, 2012
Morning Market Analysis
After rallying a few weeks ago, oil sold off near the 200 day EMA. Now, prices are resting on the 50 day EMA. Note the bearish developments in the technicals: the MACD is about to give a sell signal, while the CMF is dropping.
After dropping about 27.5% (from 69 to 50), prices in the Brazilian market has bottomed and is currently trading in about a 10% range. Note the rising MACD and CMF, indicating both positive momentum and increased volume flow.
Both the IEFs and the TLTs are right at support. A move lower will be a key development for the markets to move higher; it's more or less mandatory at this point.