Thursday, July 19, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The US markets are all rebounding and are all back within an upward sloping channel.  All are also above their respective 200 day EMAs.  However, the momentum readings for all -- while positive -- are weak.  In contrast, we see that volume is again flowing into the markets in the form of a rising CMF.  But don't read too much into the rally.  The Treasury market is still absorbing a ton of capital, keeping equity money on the side -- at least for now.

The Chinese market is still moving sideways, consolidating losses and building a possible base from which to rally.  The shorter EMAs are moving sideways, but the longer ones (50 and 200 day) are both moving lower.  Money is moving into the market, although this is probably traders "nibbling" for the sake of a longer term position.

The Indian market continues to grind higher, as prices are still in a gentle, upward sloping channel.  They hit resistance just above the lowest Fib level, but this is to be expected.  The EMAs are trying to attain a more bullish stance, but aren't there yet.  Like the US rally, this looks like a "grinder higher" rally, rather than a "euphoric buying" rally, meaning that unless there is a fundamental change in the underlying economy, I wouldn't expect this rally to move strongly higher.