Thursday, July 12, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

The weekly gold chart continues to move sideways.  Although momentum is decreasing, it's not a strong downward move.  Remember, there is just enough buying interest still, caused by global instability.  For this chart to make a convincing move lower, we'd have to see a strong move below the 150 level.

Copper broke an uptrend at the end of the spring, and has since traded in a fairly tight range between 42 and 44.  However, prices are still below the 200 week EMA, and the shorter EMAs are moving lower as well.  The MACD reading is mixed; it is in negative territory, but is about to give a buy signal.  However, the CMF tells us that money is leaving the market.

The weekly transports are moderately encouraging.  They are trending lower, but at a very slow rate.  In addition, the shorter EMAs are rising (although they're bunched together very tightly).  In addition, momentum is decreasing and the CMF reading is positive (but low).  The key to this chart is the 50 week EMA; so long as that holds, we're OK.

Note that consumer staples are in the middle of a multi-year rally.