Real PCEs rose in the second quarter, but then leveled off for the next 5-7 months. However, over the last three months we've seen a nice increase.
Service expenditures -- which account for about 65% of PCEs, have for the most part risen all year. But the rate of increase has slowed over the last few months.
Non-durable goods have been moving sideways for the entire year.
Real durable goods sales -- which had stalled for the first three quarters -- have been a big reason for the increase these last three months.
Light auto sales -- which are a big part of durable goods sales -- are still at very low historical levels. In fact,I would argue we won't see the levels of the 2000s for some time -- perhaps not the next 5 years or so.
The yearly chart for auto sales shows they took a sharp drop in the summer, but have since rebounded.
Overall retail sales stalled for the better part of the year, but have rebounded the last three months
Overall sentiment is still incredibly low by historical standards.
And on an annual basis, we're about where we were at the beginning of the year, sentiment wise.
Real disposable income -- the fuel of consumer spending, is actually slightly lower then its position at the beginning of the year. In fact, overall DPI has dropped from increases seen in the first few quarters of the year. As a result
the increase in consumer spending is coming from savings.
Overall, the last three months of the year have made up for a fairly weak consumer year. However, it has come with a cost: instead of increased earnings fueling the end of the year purchases, consumer shave been dipping into savings to make purchases. Low DPI is expected when unemployment is 8.6%; however, increases in consumer spending can't continue if their only source of funds is savings -- especially when consumer sentiment is already very low.
3 comments:
Don't you think that it might be good to look at consumer spending in nominal dollars (instead of 2005 dollars) since consumers pay their bills in nominal dollars.
"The increase in consumer spending is coming from savings."
That doesn't make sense. The increase in consumer spending is coming from people not paying their mortgages.
It's interesting to watch Americans spend themselves into bankruptcy. They run out like good little robots to buy the new gigantic pickup trucks or SUVs because the little man on the TV tells them to.
America gets its reprieves: several trillion in flight capital flows to the US because of the demolitions of Europe's waste-based copycat version of USA economy. Americans blow it all on worthless junk like buying heroin. How much of a return do Americans get from driving their gigantic pickup trucks and SUVs to the store?
Unless they use these as taxis the answer is zero. The stores are worthless, the highways, the sprawl, th towers, the acres of free parking all of it is junk that does not pay its own way.
Where did that $55 trillion in USA debt come from, again?
Comes now the Chinese copycat waste-based economy is collapsing along with the EU: the carry trade is evaporating, the yuan rises, US traders will make another trillion in forex. What will happen to that reprieve? It will be spent on more useless, worthless junk that litters the countryside from sea to shining sea.
China/EU collapses, propelling USA 'success'. Hate to see what failure looks like.
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