Thursday, September 22, 2011

Morning Market

After the Fed's statement, the equity markets tanked hard, largely because of the Fed's extremely downbeat economic analysis.  Here are the daily charts to see where we are: 




As mentioned above, all the markets sold off in reaction to the Fed's statement.  Most importantly, the IWMs are a tad below support, with level EMAs.  A strong move below their trend line would probably drag the other averages down as well.  Depending on what trend line you use, the SPYs have a bit of room to run.  The best news is the QQQs are still about the 200 day EMA.  However, if the weight of the markets keeps moving lower, this won't hold or last.



The TLTs rallied strongly on the Fed release on increased volume.  Note the remainder of the chart is very bullish -- the EMAs are all moving higher, the shorter are above the longer and prices are using the EMAs for technical support.  Also note that prices spend about a week and a half consolidating gains before the Fed meeting, giving the market some room to run.


The dollar -- after consolidating around the 200 day EMA for the last week in reaction to the EU situation, broke higher yesterday in strong fashion.  The reason for the gain is the overall expected effect of operation Twist -- in selling short term securities, the Fed will probably see a slight increase in short-term rates which is slightly dollar positive.