- by New Deal democrat
Both the King of All Doomers and the Pied Piper of Doom have triumphalist pieces up this morning.
If their past performance is any guide, this means that the bottom of the stock market correction was yesterday afternoon after the Fed announcement.
This has been a public service message. I now return you to regular progammed blogging.
UPDATE: 30 minutes after the market close. Yes, I was being sarcastic, but on the other hand, even though we had a bad day today, yesterday's intraday low was not breached. It is still the bottom.
Weighing the Week Ahead: Are You Ready for Some Fedspeak?
46 minutes ago
11 comments:
You didn't really expect consistency from the Profits (8^)) of Doom, did you?
Bonddad:
Sometimes some market indicators are slightly early. This can be good to allow the trader to prepare for the next move. Based on the S&P 500 so far this morning, that may be the case here.
We'll just have to see what happens. As I've said before Bonddad, you and NDD have a gigantic grasp of the math, which is a wonderful thing, but your predictive power would be increased if you joined up with a good muckraker (obviously not bobswern; the guy is... not well socialized) who could talk about corruption and kleptocracy with an intelligent voice. Right now I'd say it's a coin-flip whether things get better or not. For the sake of my own continued employment, I do hope you're correct, but the current climate is very worrying.
Accepting your sarcasm as is, NDD, markets are news-driven. Unless anyone can accurately predict how the Italian and Spanish bond situation will come out, even contrary indicators, like boasting permabears, aren't very helpful.
What can be said is that the reversal yesterday signaled a return of buying appetite probably sufficient to contain further drops temporarily. Yesterday, I said we were probably at a temporary bottom. Today's early morning drop made me doubt that. The fact that the 1130-50 range seems to be holding pretty well suggests that my first instinct was correct. Which goes to show that no one knows. Certainly not me.
--Charles
Um, Spartacus II: The Spartacusing, speaking of bad calls, haven't you been calling for the collapse of BofA for, like, a couple of years now?
And for the millionth time, stop lying about this blog. There are so many posts about Washington corruption and stupidity that it's sometimes hard to keep up with them.
Do a little more reading, and a little less wishing for apocalypse.
Hey PS,
I read this blog regularly, and I've noticed the regular comments about Washington stupidity and corruption. The question is this: How does the corruption and kleptocracy get factored in with the charts, in order to improve the accuracy of Bonddad and NND's predictions?
Obviously having bobswern and/or any of his posse comment here is a bad idea - one can safely say, (and I'm being polite here) that the personalities don't mesh well. On the other hand, issues such as looting, trust, corruption, and kleptocracy are obviously moving the markets now in tandem with the European situation. (The only reason S & P isn't a laughing stock right now is the trust issue. That much should be obvious.)
How does one factor these issues in with the numbers Bonddad and NDD are so good at? I haven't the foggiest. But I can see that it needs to be done.
I wonder... Will we see the usual "capitulation" event at the bottom this time?
I ask because it occurs to me that those investors who would normally be of the capitulating sort (mostly small, individual investors) are, for the most part, already out of this choatic market. Their exodus began after late 2008 and especially after the Flash Crash.
My point, of course, is that the bottom here may not look like what professionals would normally expect to see. If I'm right, what else might be an indicator of the bottom?
Just checked: DJIA down -363.43.
Question: what does everyone think (barring the EU going through the bottom & other headline risk, but factoring in the Fed's statement) the new trading range will be?
My gut tells me a 1000 pt range roughly between 1080 to 1180. Give or take.
FYI: I'm not in the market anymore, not a penny, I'm just interested.
Oops: add a zero to both those figures (on the right).
Here we go again... 2008 redux...Gloom is reaching market regulators... As per the NY Times...
"A European market regulator is considering recommending a temporary ban on negative bets against stocks across the continent, in an effort to stop the tailspin in the markets, according to two people with knowledge of government discussions. The European Securities and Markets Authority, a body that coordinates the European Union’s market policies, has been requesting information from member states about such bets against stocks, known as short-sales."
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/12/business/global/europe-considers-ban-on-short-selling.html
They also report that Greece, Turkey, and Korea, have already implemented a short-selling ban. I didn't know that.
I love this quote from the article:
"It’s a bit like suggesting we take heart patients in the emergency room off of the heart monitor because you don’t want to make doctors and nurses anxious about the patient."
18 August 2011: Options traders buying insurance peg the DJIA at 10900, so I was about 100 pts.
Damn, I'm good.
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