1.) Over the last three years, despite the whipsaws created by the approaching tax credit expiration and subsequent expiration -- the median and average pace of sales appears to be in the 5 million/year range (I'm eyeballing the chart to make a point). This is despite the worst housing market in about 50 years.
2.) The current sales pace is more or less equal to the sales pace from the early 2000s.
3.) In the mid 1990s, the average/median sales pace was about 1 million homes/year less, coming in about 4 million. I doubt this is the level that sales are moving towards. If they were going to move to this level, they already would have done so.
Here's the point: to my eyes, existing home sales have hit their primary pace for this expansion.
I'm on Linked In and Twitter (@captivelawyer). Silver Oz's Linked In name is @silver_oz. NDD is a fossil and may be reached by etching a picture in stone on the wall of a cave.
The Bonddad Economic History Project
At the beginning of 2012, I decided to start looking at the actual, statistical history of the US economy starting in 1950. The reason is simple: to find out what really happened. So, when you see title of a post that begins with a year such as 1957, followed by "employment" or "Fed policy: you know what it's for. You can also access the information by typing in BE for Bonddad econ and a year to find information on a particular year.
Here is a link to pages that contain links to all the posts on the years listed.