Click for a larger image. Thanks to Calculated Risk for the chart.
1.) Over the last three years, despite the whipsaws created by the approaching tax credit expiration and subsequent expiration -- the median and average pace of sales appears to be in the 5 million/year range (I'm eyeballing the chart to make a point). This is despite the worst housing market in about 50 years.
2.) The current sales pace is more or less equal to the sales pace from the early 2000s.
3.) In the mid 1990s, the average/median sales pace was about 1 million homes/year less, coming in about 4 million. I doubt this is the level that sales are moving towards. If they were going to move to this level, they already would have done so.
Here's the point: to my eyes, existing home sales have hit their primary pace for this expansion.
