Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Wednesday Commodities Round-Up

Today, I'm going to focus on copper. Copper is usually considered a leading indicator, because it's used in more or less everything made in the economy.

On the one year chart, notice that prices have moved through the long, upward sloping trend line established in early June of last year. Prices and EMAs are also bearishly aligned, with the shorter EMAs all moving lower and the shorter EMAs below the longer EMAs. Prices are right below the 200 day EMA, the line between bull and bear markets.

LinkThe six month chart shows a measured, down up down pattern -- that is, prices moved lower, rebounded, and then moved lower by about the same amount again. The latest move shows a more aggressive move lower, especially recently. Also note that prices are now using the 10 day EMA as technical resistance rather than support.

The trend break on the longer term chart is especially reveling about the market direction. The trend was in place move nearly a year, meaning it was very important to the market. Prices are also below the 200 day EMA -- a bearish development. Finally, as I demonstrated yesterday, international markets are slowing. These are the same markets that are a primary reason for the large increase in raw material prices over the last few years. As these markets slow, demand will as well.