Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Thursday Oil Market Analysis

Last week I wrote the following about the oil market:

The 5-minute page shows the drop, the rally along a slightly upward trend line and then yesterday's move through the trend.

Yesterday I mentioned that I am now a bit cautious on commodities. The reason is there is now evidence that some of the faster growing economics (Brazil and India) are slowing down. China's inflation rate is now higher than desired, indicating the PBOC will continue raising rates. And gas demand in the US is dropping as a result of lower prices.

At the same time, we're not crashing, just slowing. While the US economy printed a slow 1Q, there are no signs of a double dip. As such, I still see a very tight supply/demand situation.

Right now, I have no read on the oil market and would avoid it; there are simply too many wildcards in the mix currently.

Let's take a look at the current daily chart to see if new information is available.

The chart shows the very sharp drop-off, but also shows a consolidation pattern. There is support in the 96-97 area. There is also a possible triangle consolidation pattern emerging. But I'm personally no comfortable with that analysis, thinking a sideways, rectangle consolidation with a top at the 104 handle is possible. In addition, the EMAs are printing a bearish picture: all are moving lower and the shorter are below the longer. For now, I think this takes the wind out of a consolidating triangle with prices moving higher argument.

So, a move below 96 is a good shorting opportunity. I would wait to go long at levels above 104; there is simply too much traffic below that level to get through to go long before that point.