Positive economic numbers are rigged; negative economic numbers are sacrosanct. As a corollary, all bullish economists are tools while bearish economists are completely trustworthy. Finally, take one bad economic number in a series of good numbers and claim it is a sign that the end of the world is upon us.
The left's reaction to today's jobs report completely typifies the above statement. The bottom line is the employment news is good and getting better. And yet, we see the doomer Kool-Aid out in full force.
20 comments:
It's okay and indicative of improvement. It's not "good" as we're still producing jobs at a pretty slow clip relative to population growth, etc. Certainly at this point all the trend lines are pointing in the right direction even if it's not as sharply upward as I wish it were.
But one thing I saw pointed out in a DailyKos diary I'd be curious to get your input on is that while we're getting job growth, it seems that the growth is most prevalent in lower income jobs. That basically we lost a lot of high paying jobs and now we're getting back low paying jobs.
I don't know if that's a normal thing to expect and that, as the economy gets rolling that will get balanced out or if this is a sign of a problem. I am curious what you think about it (and no, I don't have the link to the diary anymore sadly).
Thanks for this site, Bonddad. I left dailykos awhile back but only recently remembered that you had your own blog. I'm glad I found it again. And I was very happy to see NDD also posts here.
Keep calling 'em like you see 'em no matter what dug-in position you're fighting against.
Please stop with you left/right BS. People have views and are biased at times, get over it.
I agree with you, but I think more people would be positive about the job numbers if Republican cuts weren't around the corner. I.E. http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2011/3/4/93357/27747
That's the feeling I get at least.
A chart you might find interesting from the CBO regarding exactly how many jobs we need to be netting every month to keep up with population growth. It's a little surprising because these numbers are much lower than what most of the blogosphere and punditocracy have been shilling.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2011/03/chart-1.html
Phil
Hate to break it to you, but this proves your glorious reality based community is the same thing as Fox news, only on the left.
Bonddad,
You're little war against some of the folks on the left is getting old. I value your blog because you largely stay out of that bullshit and can call spades spades. When you devolve into meta commentary about who's right/wrong on the left/right, it's... well it's not your strong suit.
I wasn't going to say this until you commented below:
Hate to break it to you, but this proves your glorious reality based community is the same thing as Fox news, only on the left.
Actually, no, not even close. Wrong in three very specific and very huge ways:
First of all, Fox News has a very specific political agenda they are trying to forward. They are a propaganda organization. They don't selectively interpret facts based on their own personal biases, they select them to promote a very specific political/economic agenda for one party/ideology.
Second, those people on the left are gloom and doom, but at least they have consistently been gloom and doom. They aren't gloom and doom based on who's in office, at any given time. They are sticking to a perspective that generally says, "yeah fine, but we're fucked in the long run". It may not necessarily conform to the facts at any given time, but at least it's ideologically consistent.
Finally that "reality based community" is just that, a community. There are people who participate there that are genuinely based in reality. There are people who contradict those who would throw out the facts to suit their own personal biases. I consider myself amongst them.
So Bonddad, to get right to the point, I get that a lot of people in the community shat on you when your facts stopped matching their ideology. Though I would point out that I, and others, defended you and your adherence to the facts. I understand that you'd be cranky about it, and I would too. But attacking them does nobody any good. It's not going to change them, and it brings down the overall really smart tone of your blog.
Bonddad,
These kind of arguments should be below you. I can understand the bad feelings you still seem to have about DK, but you really can't compare DK to a major national cable news channel. DK is a left leaning political web site and they are proud of it.
Funny that many of the big name left wing blogs are run by ex-republicans.
David Rosenberg is left-wing, Hale?
I think that most bears are righties. Go to Daily Kos and you'll find cheers for the jobs report. Atrios says it's good news. So, I think you're confusing a few people who annoy you with "the left."
As for me, I haven't opined about the jobs report, but if I had, it would be that it's ok, way too weak to make unemployment fall quickly. The Administration forecast as much two years ago, so it's not exactly a surprise. UE will likely be high enough in 2012 that Obama would be denied re-election if the Republicans were to run someone not objectively insane or transparently phony, which is unlikely. And the likelihood of high unemployment is especially true because of political risk, e.g., Republicans doing insane things like laying off a hundred thousand teachers in Texas, as Business Week says.
It is pretty silly to say "the left" is the main culprit in doomerism. I'll concede you the Mayan Calendar thing, but who the hell wrote The Late Great Planet Earth, Left Behind, and all the rest of the apocalyptic death porn? Who spread the Y2K insanity?
--Charles
I found this post from KOS interesting:
Jobs report best in three years, U6 gauge clocks in at 15.9%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/04/952512/-Jobs-report-best-in-three-years,-U6-gauge-clocks-in-at-159
This left-right equivalence is nonsense. The best of the "left" is Krugman, the NY Times, and arguably your own blog.
The best of the "right" is what? The Economist. Decent on world news but biased.
In the 1970s the left was crazy and the right was sane. Now it's the reverse. The attempt to establish equivalence can only serve the interests of the right. Who are the Palins, the creationists, the global warming deniers or the Koch brothers of the left?
Your argument is nonsense; just because a few bloggers on the left are economic illiterates doesn't mean there is equivalence between a mostly educated and moderate left and a mostly extreme and wacked-out right.
Steve -
Your comment simply proves my point. You wrote:
Second, those people on the left are gloom and doom, but at least they have consistently been gloom and doom. They aren't gloom and doom based on who's in office, at any given time. They are sticking to a perspective that generally says, "yeah fine, but we're fucked in the long run". It may not necessarily conform to the facts at any given time, but at least it's ideologically consistent.
In other words, the left's agenda -- at all times -- is to say things are terrible. That means they'll fit the facts to their perspective (or ignore a vast majority of them) in order to some up with a meme. That's exactly what Fox does. And also note you've accepted the fact the left does so even if it does not conform to the facts -- just like Fox. And yes -- the right does it consistently as well (just like the left).
What I find so incredibly funny is ever since I wrote that both sides of the political debate are dominated by extremists, the left has been desperately trying to tell me it's not true or that the right is in fact that much worse. This is clearly a case of, "me thinks you doth protest too much." Way too much.
As the economic numbers have gotten better the left has been absolutely silent. Show me one report from the left that highlights the fact that US manufacturing helped to pull the economy out of recession -- or that exports did the same. You can't, because they don't exist. To them US manufacturing is dead (even though we're still the largest manufacturer in the world) or exports are meaningless. As GDP increased six straight quarters, the argument became "GDP is a poor measure." PCEs increase to above pre-resession levels and it becomes "more consumerism" or "it can't last." No matter what good news comes out, it is either "rigged" or completely ignored. Just like what they do on Fox.
In other words, the left's agenda -- at all times -- is to say things are terrible. That means they'll fit the facts to their perspective (or ignore a vast majority of them) in order to some up with a meme. That's exactly what Fox does. And also note you've accepted the fact the left does so even if it does not conform to the facts -- just like Fox. And yes -- the right does it consistently as well (just like the left).
Actually no, that's not at all what I said. In fact, what I said in my third point was that community it varied. Yes, there are some on the left who are doom and gloom and predict that it will all come crashing down around us at any moment. There are others who, like you, take their cues from the facts.
That's the difference. On the left, for all of it's faults, there is a diversity of opinion. There is a reality based community there as well as a pessimism based community. There are also people there who will felate whoever is currently in charge in the Democratic party and demand that we keep our criticisms to a minimum for fear of weakening them. But at least it's not group think. At least it's not a propaganda machine deliberately misinforming people to achieve some end of their own device.
What happens on Fox, in contrast, is a very specifically targeted propaganda operation intended to take the country towards a particular outcome. If McCain was in office they'd be lauding the amazing recovery. But since it's Obama they talk about how the Kenyan usurper is bankrupting us. Lots of people have biases, but Fox isn't about bias, it's about an agenda.
Finally one last point:
As the economic numbers have gotten better the left has been absolutely silent. Show me one report from the left that highlights the fact that US manufacturing helped to pull the economy out of recession
Well I thought I read that here and since I met you at at the first YearlyKos convention (I was the guy in the guitar shirt), I kinda got the sense you were on the left. So are you on the right now? Or is it more complicated than that, just like this break down of the spectrum of left/right you're attempting.
You logic is circular. You basically identify people as irrational and then break them down into left and right. By your take, you must be irrational to be on the left or the right. If anybody offered up a factual analysis of the economy who was actually "on the left" presumably you'd assume they aren't the left because they aren't being irrational.
I am on the left and proudly so. This is not an emotional ego driven self-reinforcing statement, but a simple statement of my views. I believe strongly in a role for government. I believe in the value of unions. I believe in common sacrifice for common benefit. I believe that taxes are too low and that our health care system is dangerously unsustainable. These are the things I believe, but it does not make me ignorant of or bling to facts.
I try very very hard to be rational. I try very hard to step outside of my preconceived notions and see when other people might in fact have a point. I have reservations about this economic expansion, not because I think the numbers are rigged but because I see a lot of the underlying problems that got us into the last melt down still there. I see rising gas prices. I see a financial sector that was too big to fail and is getting bigger. I'm not divorced from reality. I'm not selectively interpreting facts. I'm not trying to be doom and gloom. But I have concerns and I don't think they are unreasonable.
*sigh*
Anyhow, look, I didn't wake up this morning looking to pick a fight on this stuff but it just grates on me. It's not an issue of "doeth protest too much", but rather an issue of seeing in the media, on a day to day basis this kind of he said/she said reporting on our politics. We'll see global warming reported as something in question. We'll see overt efforts to deny the rights of people to vote by the right and then they say ACORN does it too. It's these false equivalencies that have empowered the right for so long.
I see a slow drift to the right in this country and nobody in our government really doing anything to stop it. With each passing year we cut taxes and we give the president just a little more power, and we hold corporations just a little less accountable. So when people say the left is the same I just have to laugh and shake my head.
The left is getting steamrolled right now and it's been getting steamrolled for going on 30 years now. And the reason the right gets away with it is because whenever they do something egregious they claim the left does it too when generally speaking they don't or do so only in the most mild way. If Fox news and MSNBC are seen as the opposite sides of the same coin, then the definition of the middle drifts further right.
So anyhow, if your facts are the facts, then who cares what the left or the right think of them? State the facts, analyze them, and take pride in what you're doing. If you feel compelled to call people out, then call them out specifically rather than just waving your hands and talking about the vague "left".
Anyhow, that's all for now. I love your blog and I'm glad that you call it as it is. It's a shame that you got driven off of DailyKos and I miss seeing you speak on panels when I go to Netroots Nation now. But I get it, and I hope some day the doom and gloomers will get over it and you'll feel a little more comfortable back with the left again. In the mean time I'll keep reading and incessantly commenting :)
Steve -
We're obviously going to disagree on this point.
BS
There is a very odd left/right consensus that has developed, and you can see it on Zero Hedge and Naked Capitalism. For the most part the right side of this consensus makes sense. It stems from the Austrian School of Economics. While I think they are dead wrong, there is at least some ideological consistency in their focus on the Fed as the bearer of all things evil.
Some on the left have come to the same view. Part of this is justified anger at the banks and the perception that they have gotten away with murder.
But from an ideological perspective it makes no sense at all. It is an incoherent World View. You can see it on DKOS in spades. You see diaries blaming the Fed for the rise in Food and energy. If you read them, they will cite right wingers in complete ignorance. Why anyone left of center would cite Zero Hedge at all is beyond me, but it happens al of the time.
A significant portion of the left is simply lost. Which is why they are so very different from Krugman and Stiglitz.
First, let me state long time listener first time caller. This is great resource. I don't mean that snarkily, truly lucky to have access to all of this. Thanks so much.
Second, what are you talking about with this left right equivalence. I am on the left but here I am getting economic information to help plan my personal finance here. I don't use daily kos blog comments to make decisions. The danger with your comment is not that it is untrue that there are radicals devoid of reasoned factual commentary on both sides. That is obviously true.
The danger is that this false equivalence is being used to move the agenda to the right. And you must know this. You do know that this is exactly how "they" have created unreality based doubt about global warming. The two "equal" sides of this scientific debate is going to have real consequences.
There are members of Congress that believe that there is an honest debate whether our president is an American and we should be having that discussion. Not blog commentators but elected officials of the US house and Senate.
Are there two sides to Creation. Evolution and Creationism deserve a spot next to each other? For every crazy creation science blogger there is another evolution spouting lefty secular humanist with his/her radical agenda of teaching our children they previously were fish
So for the people that are making things happen in this world please help me understand on a left right spectrum where the following people are.
Is Krugman the polar opposite of the wallstreet journal editorial page or forbes editorial.
Is Al gore the opposite of Palin
Are Chris Mathews and Rachel Maddow the opposite of Bill ORielly and Glenn Beck (btw, in this bizarro world, Chris Mathews is the far left).
Is Obama( the communist, islmaofascist,kenyan) the opposite of Reagan (if so please tell me how they are so different. and not their rhetoric or what "they really believe" but their policies."
BTW, if you could help me out with two issues I have been struggling with lately and I am hearing two compelling sides of the arguments.
I am having a terrible time figuring out whether now is a good time to have large short term cuts in government spending. On the one hand a few on the far radical left like Krugman tell me we should not be decreasing jobs at this fragile time in the economy and on the other hand commentators, congress, the president, all seem the think now is a great time to start cutting the budget. Hmm what is the right thing.
The other issue is taxes. The far radical left wants to keep taxes higher or we will have big budget deficits or have to take big cuts. On the other hand almost all of the elected officials and national commentators on the right tell me that tax cuts actually pay for themselves (they showed me with a graph how it really is free money) I can't figure out who is right and with these two equal sides I was hoping you may be able to help me sort it out. I suspect that a flat tax of about 5% will maximize treasury return but I am not sure I am doing the math right.
I often hang out at DailyKos, and yes, there are some profound doom-and-gloomers there, and sometimes I've been among them, but not so much lately.
Mostly, I think the folks there are just trying to get their collective heads around a complicated and sometimes distressing subject. One way to do that is to try on all the hats, including the gloomy ones, and put a thought out into the great orange void solely to elicit a response that might improve one's thinking.
As few months ago, I claimed here that a weak Industrial Production number was the start of a double-dip recession. I knew my claim was weak, and it turned out to be wrong, but what I really wanted to learn was how to think better about that weak number, and I got it.
In short, I think you'll do better looking at DailyKos like a college dorm where the residents throw out lots of ideas just to debate casually about them with their friends over late-night beers even if they don't really believe the ideas they seem to be espousing.
As to the quality of Friday's Employment Situation numbers, I like Krugman's take on them best:
"My basic reaction to today’s jobs report was, been down so long it looks like up to me. Clearly, this was better than the kind of report we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. But for perspective... [a]ll through the Clinton years, we routinely got job gains bigger than the latest number — and for much of that period the economy was already fairly close to full employment. So forgive me if I don’t get too excited about ~200,000 jobs when we’re still deep in the hole."
(Source: http://nyti.ms/hP20EM)
Bonddad, Enough with your bitterness!! Jesus, the loons at DKos didn't eat your family - they acted like jerks.
What I REALLY find grating is your total unwillingness to acknowledge the efforts of those of us on Dkos that DEFENDED you. Month after month...But we're ALL loons because we post at DKos? Not that you are listening, but I like capitalism, as practiced by Democrats. I LIKE profits...I've worked in private industry as an engineer for 35 years, but I'm Mao Tse Tung because I like DKos?
Think about it.
I read this site specifically because it deals in facts. Is that no longer true? Honestly, ever time I read another political tirade show on this blog, it makes me question everything: both the data presented as well as the analysis. You're losing me Bondad. And for what? Petty revenge to bobswern? Give me a break. You're better than that.
Post a Comment