I've just completed a new research paper that surveys the history of the oil industry with a particular focus on the events associated with significant changes in the price of oil. Here I report the paper's summary of oil market disruptions and economic downturns since the Second World War. Every recession (with one exception) was preceded by an increase in oil prices, and every oil market disruption (with one exception) was followed by an economic recession.
I would also strongly recommend searching their website for "oil" as there are several other posts worth reading on the topic. Here are two:
How much are gasoline prices weighing on consumers?
Finally, from a real world perspective, Libyan oil production may have already shut down at least 350,000/BBL/Day of production although, a shut down of 500,000 is not unlikely.