Thursday, July 1, 2010

Yesterday's Market

Let's start with the Treasury market again, as this market is still signaling extreme concern.

The 7-10 year part of the curve is in a clear uptrend (a) and has gapped higher twice over the last 5 days (b and c). Over the last two days, prices have consolidated (e) in a fairly tight range.

The long end of the curve (20+ years) has two trend lines (a and b). It has gapped higher three times in the last week (c, d and e).

Looking at the A/D line for the long end of the curve we see some very interesting things. First, note the line was much lower during the end of 2008 panic (a). Next, notice the line increase at the beginning of this year while the market was going down (b). This indicates that people were concerned about the economy at the beginning of this year and were accumulating sage assets. Finally, notice that the line is now at very high levels (c). All of this tells us that there is a tremendous amount of volume moving into the market, and this situation has existed since the beginning of the year.

It's beginning to look as though the industrial metals chart was forming a double top over the last half year (a and b). Notice the large volume sell-off that occurred after each of the tops. There is still a great deal of concern about China right now, leading to the sell-off.

Perhaps the one saving grace of the current situation is oil, which is still cheap compared to the price spikes we saw at the end of the last expansion. Compare price levels a and b.

Equity prices are still in a clear downward trend. They first moved lower (a), followed by two days of consolidation (b). Next they gapped lower (c) and consolidated over two days (d). Finally, notice that prices broke lower at the end of yesterday's trade (e).