Let's start with the equity markets.

Prices gapped lower at the open (a) but rallied throughout the day. Prices initially rallied to just below the 50 minute EMA (b) then corrected in a downward sloping channel (c). Prices then rallied strongly into the close (d) printing a very strong volume bar (e) at the end.

The Treasury market has rallied as the stock market has fallen - basically batching a flight to safety bid. Yesterday prices gapped higher at the open (a), then went into a down (b), up (c) down (d) pattern. However, the last leg down (d) had a volume surge, indicating a higher amount of participants getting out of the market.

The dollar has also benefited from a flight to quality at the expense of the euros fall. However, yesterday after gapping higher, the dollar continued to move lower, finding upward resistance at various EMAs (a, b, c) throughout the day. Also note that momentum was moving lower throughout the day (d).
Currencies are at the center of recent market turmoil. As the euro has fallen, the dollar as risen, leading to a drop in commodity prices. However, it's possible we're nearing a turning point.

For the dollar, momentum is close to giving a sell signal (b) and the A/D line has dropped (c) indicating a move from the ETF. However, the EMA and price picture are still very bullish.

For the euro, the MACD is close to giving a buy signal (a) and we're seeing money flow back into the security (b).


2 comments:
As an aside to market action...Libor fear is collapsing
today yesterday morning the June 2010 Eurodollar was .78..today it
trading around .65....there is still hedging for higher rates but
the pace has substantially slowed.
Per withholding tax calculations, I know several people whose withholdings tax was lowered in 2009, some did not realize this until they received their W-2 in January '10 and realized that instead of a refund, they owed additional tax. They then corrected their withholding amounts to what they were in 2008. This could explain some of the jump in months of 2010 that you attribute to job growth.
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