![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXI2MpZCiG6TqgIbb86M360MhRaUOttPIfZAZT80sF8-Ir0kKTZVCtpHn_gtH5ImpBm2AHkwuuRVQwomD-arNtIWjJOW0LJGsXbQGPmL-Shm8Le448Gzh3QHdAzaE8ANljrgM2cDC7Kb4/s400/Chart+of+IEF1.gif)
First, let's note where we are in the big (multi-year) cycle. The IEFs are in the middle of a giant head and shoulders pattern. Most importantly, prices are on the right side, meaning a move lower (below the neckline) is possible. Fundamentals back up this situation. The US is having to float a lot of debt to finance it's budget deficit. More supply = lower prices.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhE1BSBvAsc5WlB4MfoNnB2wdVLtca0f9ISAs7lYUwCLpFTgT-pDgAKVBlAyx9CHqZI_6SRnkqc6SpahL3ZUgNZkgRgXmHLLILYJJip1ctc5cevwAWkVemoJocs0fD7Edu-ITXj-flMkpg/s400/Chart+of+IEF2.gif)
A.) Prices sold off in a big way in December, falling nearly 5% in a month.
B.) Prices bounced back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
C.) Is this a double top from the bottom at the end of last year?
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBRQFFiQuR52cwVWx2-L3BIvRxca6mK2dKfyP-28TqPZqjqhnaSE6lkJIZdOV94qtV1kAEZGxElsiaz_2q6qLNbN6lBmFl5PRAmlhVtHuOBuA75YHPHtClUR3mgC4Se4W5WvwAgUCWPSI/s400/Chart+of+IEF3.gif)
For the last few weeks prices have been gravitating around the 50 day EMA, not really willing or wanting to make a firm commitment in either direction.