Monday, December 28, 2009

Will Stocks Rally After the First of the Year? -- Part II

In addition to the SPY chart below, consider the following charts:


Click for a larger image:

A.) Treasury prices have been dropping all month, falling 4.5%. Also note prices are below the lows of early November.

B.) The EMA picture is turning negative: all the short-term EMAs are moving lower and the shorter are below the longer. In addition, prices are below all the EMAs.

C.) Momentum is decreasing and

D.) Money is flowing out of the market.

Finally, notice the market is approaching key levels established in August. This price level will be an important test.




A.) The transports have moved above key resistance. However, prices have consolidated rather than moving higher.

B.) The EMA picture is bullish: the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs, prices are above the longer EMAs and all the EMAs are moving higher.

C.) Momentum is increasing and

D.) Money is flowing into the security.



A.) Earlier this year the IWMs formed a double top.

B.) However prices fell to around the 200 day EMA and have since been rallying. Now prices have risen above previous levels.

C.) The EMA picture is bullish: the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs, prices are above the longer EMAs and all the EMAs are moving higher.

D.) Momentum is increasing and

E.) Money is flowing into the security. Notice the big increase over the last approximately week.

The IWMs are a good indicator of risk tolerance.



A.) Prices have broken through key resistance levels.

B.) The EMA picture is bullish: the shorter EMAs are above the longer EMAs, prices are above the longer EMAs and all the EMAs are moving higher.

C.) The MACD has given a buy signal

D.) Over the last three months there has been no major outflow or inflow in the QQQQs.