The NFIB's SBET has just been released and, consistent with last week's tease, it paints a deteriorating story:
Small Business Owners'Optimism in the Tank; Index Falls AgainWASHINGTON, December 8, 2009 – The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 0.8 points in November, falling to 88.3 (1986=100), 7.3 points above March’s recession bottom. In the deep 1981-82 recession, the Index never fell below 90 and quickly surged to a record high early in 1983. In this recession, the Index has been below 90 for six quarters, indicative of the severity of this downturn.
“The biggest problem continues to be a shortage of customers,” said NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg. “Apparently, owners can’t find a good reason to be optimistic about the future of the economy or their personal future. The legislative agenda in Washington is a major factor blunting consumer and owner optimism.”
Source: NFIB
Putting aside Mr. Dunkelberg's politics, this report seems to follow the big business/small business decoupling trend that appears to have taken hold. It is hard to overstate the importance of small businesses to job creation, and this report indicates they are nowhere near out of the woods.
2 comments:
Taking Dunkelberg's politics from the side back to the forefront, "The legislative agenda in Washington" is to bail out huge incompetent corporations and have them merge into ever-larger behemoths.
Meanwhile, hurting customers are shopping for price even more than they usually have, giving the large corporations a distinct advantage.
So, small businesses continue to struggle, and with them the labor market, and with that the fundamental structure of the economy. The GDP may be going up, but the economy is a means to an end, and it's not doing what it was meant to do.
This is a serious problem.
Dunkelberg's politics unfortunately colors this survey.
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