Click for a larger image.
The chart reveals the following points. First at the end of last year and the beginning of this year the economy was bleeding jobs. Four months ago the rate of job losses decreased from roughly 610,000 on average to about 225,000 on average. In other words, the pace of job losses is still decreasing which is good. However,
The unemployment rate increase .3%. The reason is illustrated in the following chart:
Click for a larger image.
The unemployment rate comes from the household survey which shows in increase in the civilian labor force of 73,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed of 466,000.
The above chart also shows that the rate of decrease in various job sectors is moderating. Note the month over month losses are -80 for service industries and down -136,000 for goods industries.
There are three other interesting data points.
The number of people working part-time for economic reasons has leveled off since the beginning of the year.
The number of people marginally attached (These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.) is increasing. And
The number of discouraged workers (Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them) may have topped out for this cycle as well.Overall I'd call this a lukewarm report. I don't like the increase in the unemployment rate, but it's not surprising. The overall rate of job losses are still moderating, the rate of individual losses in various industries are decreasing and two measures of labor under-utilization (part-time for economic reasons and discouraged workers) appear to be topping.
3 comments:
The employment-population ration also fell to 59.2, not seen since early 1984. This may be more telling, as this metric doesn't attempt to define who is or isn't counted in the labor force or "unemployed" by anything but age.
Yesterday I was talking to a friend who works at an outplacement company to help laid-off workers. The individual claimed that they had started to see an increase in the number of clients they serve, and that the increase was normal at this time of year "as companies strive to improve their bottom line for the end of the year". The quoted words are those of my friend not mine. I consider this as anecdotal information and was curious as to whether there is a seasonal effect seen in prior years. It is my understanding that November & December normally see the addition of seasonal workers for the Holiday season and I had never heard of this possibility before. Has anyone looked at the government numbers to know if this is real on an across the economy basis?
From the BLS the jobs lost were 216,000 which includes an input of plus 118,000 from the B/D adjustment. The household survey indicated employment fell by 392,000 jobs. The prior two months saw adjustments totaling additional losses of about 50,000 jobs. The total number of unemployed increased by 466,000 while the labor force incresed by 73,000 yielding an unemployment rate of 9.7%.
So we have three different numbers compiled by three different methods descibing the same event, all subject to revision at a later date. I'll stick with a blindfold and darts.
Post a Comment