From IBD:
Housing starts shot up 22.2% from January's all-time low to an annualized 583,000 units, the Commerce Department said — thanks to a spike in new apartment and condo activity. Analysts expected another fall. Starts were still down 47.3% vs. a year ago.
Building permits, a future activity gauge, rose 3% to a 547,000-unit rate, 44.2% below a year ago.
The housing data, along with higher retail sales excluding autos in January-February, give optimists some hope that the recession, which began in December 2007, may be starting to ease.
Pessimists note that single-family starts — up just 1.1% — are essentially at record lows, consumer spending has been helped by one-time factors, and industrial activity shows no glimmer of recovery.
Please. One month does not a trend reversal make. We need a lot more data before we even think about making that call. Just take a look at the chart above. Does that look like its a bottom?
3 comments:
Look at your chart. Starts have fallen over 3/4 of the way to zero in 3 years.
Mathematically, starts can either:
(1) go all the way to zero in the next ~12 months.
(2) break trend and start forming a bottom.
Which do you pick? If number two, the only issue is when this year.
Um, no.
Starts always spike on seasonal weather.
It just looks like something because it's been so bad.
I guess if I wanted a lil' evidence of my assertion I could just point to the, what is it... 13+ months of inventory just marinating.
Post a Comment