Monday, August 25, 2008

Market Mondays


Let's start with the macro picture. Notice two important things about this year long chart in daily increments:

-- Prices are below the 200 day SMA and the 200 day SMA has acted as resistance since the end of last year

-- The index has made a series of lower lows and lowers highs which is a classic bear market pattern


On the three month chart, notice the following:

-- Prices dipped below all three SMAs last week, but have since rebounded

-- The 10 and 20 day SMAs are heading higher

-- The 10 and 20 day SMAs have moved through the 50 day SMA

-- The last two points are short-term bullish

-- The 50 and 200 day SMA are heading lower which is long-term bearish

So we have a split market -- a good short-term bullish bias and a long-term bearish bias. That makes the current rally very suspect in its possible longevity.