Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Treasury Tuesdays

Sorry for taking so long to get to this. There were some other stories that I thought were a bit more important.

On the 6 month chart, we see the ned of the year long rally that ended at the end of March. Money flowed into treasuries because they are attractive during economically difficult times. However, when the Fed back-stopped the Bear Stearns deal, it signaled the Fed would take a far more aggressive role in preventing a financial meltdown. So money flowed back into the stock market and out of treasuries. Hence the price drop from the end of March to mid-June.

The three month charts shows the latest action, which has come conflicting signals.

-- Prices rallied from mid-June to mid-July, but they have backed off since then.

-- Prices are below the 200 day SMA, but not by much

-- Prices and the other SMAs are bunched together big time, indicating a complete lack of direction from the bulls and the bears.