More thoughts (and graphs!) about last Tuesday’s election, and the route to 2028

 

 - by New Deal democrat

Tomorrow we’ll get the as usual very important consumer inflation report. There’s no big economic news today, so let me fire off some additional thoughts, and graphs, about last Tuesday’s midterm elections.

1. Victory has many parents

Let me start out with this Bluesky post that was repeated by Dana Houle:

I’ve seen posts saying that massive voting by Blacks, especially Black women, powered last Tuesday’s victories. That was true:

I’ve also seen posts saying that massive turnout by Hispanics powered last Tuesday’s victories. That was also true:

I’ve seen posts saying that younger voters, and in particular younger educated White voters, powered last Tuesday’s victories. That was also true:

I’ve seen posts saying that a majority of White women finally voted for Democrats. That was also true:

And finally, I’ve seen posts saying that the utter disgust by some GOP-leaning voters, repudiating the corruption of the T—-p Administration, were a crucial part of last Tuesday’s victories:

 That was also at least partly true:

The point here is that you don’t suddenly get a D+13 electorate just by turning out the same people you did in 2022 and 2024. There was increased turnout by Blacks, Latinos, and young people (and there is considerable overlap between the last two, since in the past several decades more Hispanics have been born than Whites). And there were several other important demographic components, which I’ll note further below.

2. The incoming Congress will be in opposition; don’t expect it to be able to enact significant legislation.

I’ve already seen lots of posts insisting that Democrats must enact this or that social or economic legislation.

That isn’t going to happen. The most likely scenario over the next 2 years is that the only thing that is going to be enacted into law are new budgets and nothing else. That’s because the GOP in the Senate will likely continue to filibuster every progressive piece of legislation that passes the House, and even if the Senate provides 60 votes, T—-p will almost certainly veto that legislation, and Congress won’t be able to overcome those vetoes. 

What the incoming Congress can do is hold lots of investigative hearings, and pass in the House, and get 50+ votes in the Senate, for progressive legislation, thus providing a template for Democratic candidates in 2028, including for President, to promise the American people if they are elected. There may also be a few cases where enough GOP Senators defect that particularly incompetent and/or corrupt members of the Administration can be impeached and removed.

That’s what we should expect of the new Congress. One other, open, question, is how they handle their subpoena power. Since we should expect wholesale flouting of subpoenas by Administration-aligned witnesses, the question is whether the Congress responds by going mewling to the Federal Courts, or whether it reinvigorates its power of inherent contempt.

3. The GOP will be hobbled in 2028

Will T—-p try to run for a 3rd term? Maybe, if he thinks he can get away with it. But the signs are that he does not expect to live much longer, so the more likely scenario is that he allows for a successor. But there is no way he is going to allow any daylight between his positions (whatever they may be at any given hour) and the GOP Presidential candidate. This is always a problem for those of the same party running to succeed a two-term President, but it will be exacerbated in 2028 as T—-p continues to demand slavish obeisance to his cult.

And, like most authoritarian regimes, competency has been selected against in favor of bootlickers. It’s clear that both Vance and Rubio want to run, as well as DeSantis; but all three are wooden imitations of T—-p without the charisma. This does not bode well for the GOP in 2028. Their best chance is if a member of the “never-T—-p” faction is able to secure the nomination; but again, the cult is likely still to be a majority of the GOP primary electorate.

4. The 2028 electorate is not going to be the 2026 electorate

That being said, let’s return to the issue of demographics. Because the one group that still voted overwhelmingly GOP in 2026, by 80% White evangelical Christians, did *not* have any increase in turnout. In fact, I have seen one estimate (based on a Fox News poll) that they only constituted 17% of the 2026 electorate, vs. 23% in 2024. 

They will be back in 2028, as will the Wall Street ‘tax cuts uber alles’ crowd.

In short, while there is 2 full years of news and history ahead of us, at least preliminarily we should not expect a D+13 electorate in 2028. It is going to be a harder slog.

5. Demographics is still destiny

But progress will still be made, one funeral at a time. Let me re-run several graphs from 10 years ago that I have returned to a number of times. 

Here is the 2016 vote by age group:

And here is the historical graph of voting in Presidential elections by age group, defined by the year in which they turned 18:

The very blue Greatest Generation is all but gone, as is most of the Silent Generation. The tail end of that generation that was born during WW2, has always trended Blue. The first part of the Baby Boom trended red, while the middle group (basically 1951-57) that came of age during Nixon’s Administration, has always been very Blue. But then along came “Generation Jones” and at least the first half of Gen X - those born roughly between 1958 and 1972, who were disgusted with Carter and have always venerated Reagan, viewing the ‘Alex Keaton’ character from the 1980s sitcom ‘Family Ties’ as their role model. They are rock-solid GOP, and they are all now over 50 years old, the demographic of peak voting.

As an aside, that may explain why Florida, the 7th oldest State in the country, resisted the Blue wave:

Finally, every age group which has followed, with the possible exception of those who were disenchanted with the Biden Administration, has trended deep Blue:

The first few years of that age group have also reached age 50. In other words, we can expect a Bluer and Bluer electorate over time for the next several decades.

The trek back from the deep Abyss is not guaranteed to succeed. But it had to begin with a first step. That’s what last Tuesday was.

Weekly Indicators for November 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

 

 - by New Deal democrat

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.

While none of my three time frames has turned negative, the decay from positivity has spread from the long leading time frame to the short leading one. Meanwhile, led by consumer spending, the coincidental fime frame has stayed very positive.

But as I’ve written many times in the past year, the wealth effect from the AI Boom (or bubble) in the stock market has had a lot to do with underwriting that consumer spending.

Will the sell-off in that sector of the market affect consumer spending? We may soon find out.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and will bring me a little lunch money as my reward for collecting and collating it for you.

November jobs report: very positive headlines, but with weak hours and aggregate payrolls

 

 - by New Deal democrat

In the earlier part of this year my Big Theme was that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) had been counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. In the last few months that has changed to the economy being in an inflationary expansion, including a slight pick-up in employment and downward drift in unemployment.

After a preliminarily weak report this month, this month came in at the stronger end of that range.

Below is my in depth synopsis.

HEADLINES:

• +165,000 jobs gained. Private sector jobs increased 159,000, while government jobs rose 6,000. The three month average increased to +137,000.
• The pattern of downward revisions to previous months reversed this month, as August was revised upward by +53,000, and September was also revised higher by +31,000 for a total increase of +84,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, rose sharply for the third month in a row, by +463,000 jobs. Because of the lapse in reporting last October, there is no YoY comparison this month. 
• The U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% back to 4.1%. 
• But the U6 underemployment rate rose +0.2% to 7.9%.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose +234,000 to 6.024 million, well within its recent range.

Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession

These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a downturn vs. rebounding. These were decidedly mixed.

• The average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declilned -0.2% to 41.8 hours.

• Manufacturing jobs rose +19,000, the 7th increase in the last 12 months.
• Truck driving, which had reversed its recent decline for three month in a row, was unchanged this month.
• Construction jobs declined -3,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined again, by -1,200.
• Goods producing jobs as a whole rose +15,000. 

• Temporary jobs, which had declined by over -650,000 since late 2022, but has reversed higher most of this year, rose again, by 18,600.
• The number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less rose +72,000 to 2170 million, well within its range over the last 3 years.

Wages of non-managerial workers 

• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.12, or +0.4%, to $32.75, for a YoY gain of +3.3%. Except for July’s +3.2%, and several months affected by pandemic shutdowns, this equals the lowest since December 2019. This remains less than the 3.7% YoY inflation rate as of September, meaning that these workers are again earning less in real terms.

Aggregate hours and wages: 

• The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.2%, and is up 1.2% YoY.

• The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose +0.2%, and is up 4.6% YoY, and up 0.9% above the YoY inflation rate through September.

Other significant data:

• Professional and business employment continued its recent increasing trend, up +70,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This remains above its low from last October, and remains higher YoY as well.
• The employment population ratio reversed its recent declines, rising another +0.1% to 59.3%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate rose +0.1% to 61.9% , vs. 63.4% in February 2020. IMPORTANT: both the EPOP and LFPR are greatly affected by the retiring Boomer population. In the prime age 25-54 demographic, they are virtually unchanged.

SUMMARY

This was one of the most positive reports all year, still consistent with an inflationary expansion, and with mixed but reasonably good internals. The employment gain was weak, and so were the revisions. The unemployment rate declined, and hourly earnings increase well. Weaknesses included an increase in the underemployment rate, a negative number for aggregate hours, and a very weak increase in aggregate payrolls, almost certainly less than the likely increase in inflation this month. Perhaps most importantly, real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls remain positive YoY, signaling that the expansion is continuing.

The economically weighted ISM averages for November show a strong expansion, weakly growing employment, and even worse inflation

 

 - by New Deal democrat

The economically weighted ISM manufacturing (25%) + services (75%) indexes continue to be the best timely snapshot of the US economy. The manufacturing index has a very good 80 year history as a leading indicator, and the latter now has 25 years under its belt as well. When that average has dipped below 50 on a 3 month basis, the US has been in recession; otherwise, not.

Earlier this week, the manufacturing index continued to show a strong, but very inflationary, expansion. Yesterday, the services index showed the same. And both also continued to show that employment, while growing, remained weak.

To the numbers: the headline services index declined -2.7 to 53.8 [recall that any number over 50 indicates expansion]. The three month average was 57.3. Since the three month average for manufacturing was 54.9, the economically weighted average was 56.7 [note: in all of the graphs below, the manufacturing number is gray, and services blue]:

New orders declined -3.9 to a still strong 55.9. The three month average was 57.8. The three month average for manufacturing was 54.8, so the economically weighted of this most forward looking component was 57.8:

The relatively punk metric in these indexes has been employment, which had been in contraction for over a year, before improving in the last few months. This month it rose 1.3 to 51.4. The three month remained slightly in contraction, however, at 49.5. Since the manufacturing employment subindex three month average was 52.1, the economically weighted average continued just barely into expansion at 50.3:

Importantly, the weighted average for employment has lagged the jobs report this year, which may have to do with the fact that the ISM indexes are *diffusion* indexes, i.e., how widespread is the hiring, and the hiring in the jobs report has been more narrowly focused on AI-related industries.

Finally, widespread price increases have been worsening in these indexes this year. This month, the prices paid index for services declined -1.0 to 73.0, its second highest number in over two years, and the three month average rose +0.9 to 73.2. The three month average for manufacturing declined this month to 75.2, meaning that the economically weighted average increased 1.0 to 73.6:

Note that the above graph covers five years instead of just 3, to show that producer inflaton has become almost as bad as during the post-pandemic inflation, with the worst reading since mid-year 2022.

To sum up, in November the economically weighted ISM averages show an economy that remains in reasonably strong expansion, with a very positive leading new orders component. Employment has also improved, but is still only weakly expansionary. And inflation is, on average, getting even worse at the producer level, which bodes poorly for consumer inflation as well. 

Jobless claims continue near historic lows, anticipating a further decline in the unemployment rate

 

 - by New Deal democrat

I will put up my detailed summary of the economically weighted ISM reports for this month a little later today, but first let’s take our regular weekly look at jobless claims.

Initial claims fell to a near historic low of 189,000 last week (only the week of July 18 was  equal). The four week moving average declilned -2,250 to 194,750, a historic low not seen since 1969 - over 55 years ago. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million:

On the YoY% basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were down -17.1%, the four week average was down -13.6%, and continuing claims were down -12.4%:

This continues the trend all year long of better and better positive news for the economy in general and the labor market in particular for the next few months.

Finally, let’s take our last look before tomorrow’s jobs report at the leading/lagging relationship between jobless claims and the unemployment rate:

I do not see how the unemployment rate fails to improve over the next few months, to a sub-4% reading. The last time there were these low jobless claims numbers, unemployment was in the 3.6%-3.8% range. We’ll obviously get our next look tomorrow!

Thoughts (and graphs!) on yesterday’s midterm elections

 

 - by New Deal democrat

Well, that was exciting, wasn’t it?

Before I return to my usual economic nerdiness, here’s a few graphs that have stood out to me so far about last night’s election.

First, it looks like Democrats outperformed the polling average by about 1%-2%. That was enough to carry a bunch of “too close to call” races across the finish line. How big a tsunami was it? 

Well, Democrats in total outvoted GOPers by about 13%, the biggest such outperformance by either party since 1976:

So the framing that this election would be “2018+” appears vindicated, as well as that the GOP would suffer its worst shellacking since 1974. In that year, Democrats picked up 49 seats, which in modern times was only surpassed by the GOP pickup of 54 seats in 1994. It’s possible that could be surpassed this year, once all the votes are counted, but even if not, it will be a very large increase

Democrats now control every US Senate seat in the Northeast except for 1 in PA, and including the Great Lakes States, the GOP only has one each in OH and WI, as well as both in IN. Further, Democratic dominance in the Senate extends all the way down the Atlantic Coast to the FL State line, as well as the West Coast:

When we include control of State governments, here is the updated map we get:

The GOP is dominant in Appalachia, the lower Mississippi valley, the Gulf Coast, and the Northern tier of thinly populated mountain and high plains States, and almost nowhere else.

The biggest earthquake of all last night has to be Texas, where not only did we pick up the US Senate seat, but also the Governorship, and control of one of the two State Legislative Chambers. There is still work to do to pick up the second chamber, and of course the GOP “dummymander” is in place until we can manage a trifecta, or after the 2030 Census, whichever comes first.

Further, both NC and GA appear to be following VA’s trajectory on the East Coast. Although the NC Congressional “dummymander” backfired, with a majority of Congressional seats now held by Democrats, the state level legislative gerrymanders will still have to be overcome.

And finally, my pet project of Kansas bore fruit last night, with both the US Senate seat flipping Blue, and the Democrat also claiming victory in the Governor’s race. Only the lower House of the state legislature was up for election last night, and while the Democrats didn’t win, they broke the GOP supermajority.

Lastly, the generational shift to Democrats was also apparent last night:

When the younger Democratic cohorts come out to vote, Democrats win. Among older voters, the GOP majority isn’t so much the bulk of Boomers, but rather “generation Jones” and Gen-X, i.e., those people born in the 1960s and early 1970s who formed their core political beliefs during the Carter/Reagan/ GWBush years, and are at their peak propensity to vote now.