Saturday, September 20, 2025

Weekly Indicators for September 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

 

 - by New Deal democrat


My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.

Along with the continuing resilience of consumer spending, which I wrote about yesterday, the other surprise in the data has been the strong rebound in manufacturing indexes in the past 45 days, as evidenced by several of the regional Fed situation reports released in the past week. All of this is part of a complex reaction to the chaos of imposition/postponements etc. of tariffs. Needless to say, it remains to be seen just how durable this is.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and bring me a penny or two for lunch money.

Addendum: speaking of yesterday’s post, there is one graph that didn’t make it in there, but is an important part of of the overall picture; namely, that the share of total spending by the top 10% of consumers is at an all time record high:


This doesn’t mean that the increasing trend can’t continue. In fact, with fits and starts it’s been the case since at least the start of the Millennium. But it does point to the narrowness of the support for the consumption part of the economy.