- by New Deal democrat
With the sharp increases in interest rates, and the complete stalling of real consumer spending measured YoY, since early this year I have expected employment to follow suit, decelerating over time to a stall. And the three month average in employment gains since February decelerated from over 500,000 to 372,000 through September. Because jobless claims, which have risen from their June lows, lead the unemployment rate, I have also expected that to stop declining, and indeed to rise a little.
Both of those were borne out in today’s employment report for October. The three month average of job growth declined to 289,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.7%.