Thursday, October 20, 2022

Jobless claims flat for the moment


 - by New Deal democrat

There’s no big news in the jobless claims release this week.

Initial claims fell -12,000 to 214,000, but the 4 week average increased 1,250 to 212,250. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 21,000 to 1,385,000:

To the extent there is any discernible trend, I would call it sideways in the past few weeks.

I had expected gas prices to continue to rise following OPEC’s decision to cut production earlier this month. But that hasn’t happened:

It may well be that several OPEC countries are cheating (i.e., continuing to produce as before while relying on others to cut back and drive up prices. It could also be affected by Biden’s decision to release oil from the Strategic Preserve.

In any event, I expected jobless claims to rise again with gas prices. Needless to say, so far that hasn’t happened. Which is good news, so I’ll take it.