- by New Deal democrat
Remember, my rule of thumb for non-seasonally adjusted data is that the peak is most likely when the YoY gain declines to only 1/2 of its maximum in the last 12 months. the YoY peak in the Case Shiller index was +20.6% in March and April. The peak for the FHFA index was 19.3% in July 2021. By that standard, although both decelerated to 12 month lows, at +15.8% and 13.9% respectively, neither has actually turned down, although the FHFA index is closer. And since the FHFA has a tendency to turn slightly ahead of the Case Shiller index, this strongly suggests that a sharp deceleration in the Case Shiller index YoY will start within a month or two.