Thursday, March 17, 2022

Industrial production nowcasts that the economy continues to perform well


 - by New Deal democrat

Industrial production increased in February by 0.5%, its highest reading ever with the exception of two months in 2014, and the second half of 2018. Manufacturing production  increased 1.2%, also its highest ever with the exception of 24 months from late 2006 through early 2008:

Of course, considering population and GDP growth in the past 15 years, this is hardly spectacular to say the least.

The YoY% comparison shows a big jump, but that is all because of the comparison with last February’s Big Texas Freeze:

If we take out last February, and instead compare with last March, the YoY gains are 4.5% and 4.2%, respectively, which is still solid and in line with the trend over most of the past year. 

The bottom line is that, Industrial production, the pre-eminent coincident indicator, is continuing to nowcast that the production side of the economy is performing well.