Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022


 - by New Deal democrat

My short term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha.

This forecast is based on the same system I have successfully used since before the Great Recession. Most forecasters, deliberately or not, cherry pick data points to fit a previously arrived at intellectual point of view, and simply project the current trend ahead (or else default to the inevitable “We’re DOOOMED!). The short leading indicators, in contrast, forecast a change in the trend before the lion’s share of the data is affected.

Clicking through and reading will give you a good idea of what is ahead from now till the 4th of July, and will pay for some bourbon and firewood to help get me through the cold winter nights still ahead.