Tuesday, November 16, 2021

. . . And Industrial Production isn’t too shabby, either


 - by New Deal democrat

Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, was reported for October this morning in addition to real retail sales, discussed already in my last post. - and it was also quite positive.

Total production increased 1.6% during the month, and manufacturing production increased 1.3%. This was the biggest monthly increase for total production since March of this year, and except for that month, also the biggest increase in over a year:

Both total and manufacturing production have returned to being higher than their immediate pre-pandemic levels, and also the highest since the onset of the pandemic:

The former is up 0.3% compared with February 2020, and the latter up 1.6%.

I wrote yesterday that, despite my real concern with inflation going forward, my array of indicators did not forecast a recession, and this morning’s reports on both retail sales and industrial production confirmed that point of view.