Monday, February 8, 2021

The short term 2021 economic forecast + brief coronavirus update


 - by New Deal democrat

At the beginning of each year, I have usually posted both short and long term forecasts. Because of the impact of the pandemic, I refrained from doing so. But with light at the end of the tunnel courtesy of the vaccines, it makes sense to do updates now.

So . . . my K.I.S.S. short term forecast is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, clicking on over to the link will give you some useful economic information about the likely trajectory of the economy through midyear, and also reward me a little bit for the effort I put in.

Meanwhile, some significant news on the pandemic front.

While we wait to see if the Super Bowl was another super spreader event, the one week average of cases through yesterday was at the lowest point in 3 months:

If the downward trajectory continues, we’ll be at our spring and summer averages within 3 weeks.

And vaccinations continue to improve, with the weekly rate at over 1.4 million daily:

total vaccinations have reached over 40 million:

That is still less than 10% of what we need to bring the pandemic truly under control.