Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for April 14: two consortiums of States formed

 - by New Deal democrat

Here is the update through yesterday (April 13) 

The big news yesterday was the formation of 2 consortiums of States, on the East and West Coasts (something I have advocated and predicted for a month), to develop and jointly implement plans to “test, trace, and quarantine” as part of detailed plans to reopen their economies, completely sidestepping the inert federal government.

Number and rate of increase of Reported Infections (from Johns Hopkins via arcgis.com)
  • Number: up +25,004 to 582,594 (vs. 35,219 prior peak on April 10)

  • ***Rate of increase: day/day: 4% (vs. 7% for the past week, and 5% on April 12)

Yesterday marked the lowest number of new infections in over a week, and the smallest % increase since early March.
Number of deaths and infections and rate of increase of testing (from COVID Tracking Project)
  • ***Number of deaths: Total 23,369 up +1,450 day/day

  • Rate: increase of 7% day/day vs. average of 12% in past week
  • Number of tests: 129,114, down -11,112 day/day
  • Ratio of positive tests to total: 4.5:1

US States and population in total lockdown, business lockdown, and partial restrictions - no changes in past 24 hours 
Below are the States that have not gone to lockdown orders:
  • Partial restrictions on business (bars, restaurants): 5 States (IA, ND^, NE, UT*^, WY^) 9.7 million, 2.9%
  • School closure only: 2 States (AR^, SD*) 3.9 million, 1.2%
*some local areas under lockdowns
^restrictions on or quarantine of travelers from out of State
US States with “test, trace, and quarantine” programs
  • East Coast consortium: 7 States: CT, DE, MA, MD, NJ, NY, PA, RI
  • West Coast consortium: 3 States: CA, OR, WA
  • Also under development: 1 State: UT
  • Midwest consortium*: 3 States: MI, MN, WI
*procurement of medical supplies only
Summary for April 14

Here’s how we stand (meaningful new developments in italics): 
  • About 95% of the total US population remains under total lockdown.
  • The number of both daily new infections and deaths appear to have plateaued in the past week.
  • The number of daily tests has stalled at about 140-150,000. As a result, we likely have been missing a large percent of new infections. My personal suspicion is that the actual number of total infections in the US is between 2-5x the official number.
  • The Trump Administration has taken no steps towards a nationwide “test, trace, and quarantine” plan that will be needed to lift lockdowns, or to assist States to do so, and is using a haphazard, secret, and likely corrupt method of distributing vital medical equipment.
  • In the absence of federal action, 14 States are either coordinating in making purchases of the necessary equipment, and/or to develop their own “test, trace, and quarantine” plan.
  • Some private companies are developing technologies or equipment to be used in a “test, trace, and quarantine” regimen. For example, Google and Apple have premiered an app under development that will trace coronavirus contacts. 
  • Trump has claimed “total authority” to “open up” States’ lockdowns which if done would likely create a Constitutional crisis, as several States have already indicated that they would refuse to follow a (likely Unconstitutional) federal “order.”

Sent from my iPad