Tuesday, November 21, 2017

The Large Increase in the LEIs is a 1-Time Event

Yesterday, the Conference Board released their latest LEI numbers, which reported a large increase.  As the above table shows, this was mostly caused by a big contribution from initial unemployment claims.  They recently rose and fell due to hurricane season:

The top chart is the composite 4-week moving average, which spiked after the hurricanes hit the U.S.  The middle chart shows initial claims for Texas; the bottom chart shows the same data for Florida.  All three indicate that the large decline is a temporary development that will return to more normal, late cycle readings next month.