- by New Deal democrat
Well, this isn't something I expected to happen at the beginning of this year. For the last 16 months, gas and oil prices have risen off their bottom and the question had been, how much of a YoY increase there would be.
That has all changed in the last month. A few weeks ago, oil prices went negative YoY.
As of this past weekend, according to GasBuddy, so did gas prices:
Further, since oil prices remain down YoY:
and gas prices at the pump tend to follow oil prices with a slight lag, it looks like consumers will benefit from cheaper gas for a little while longer. This will tend to be reflected in subdued inflation readings, and so higher real wage gains.
All of which makes it perfectly obvious that the Fed isn't raising rates to fight inflation.