Tuesday, December 8, 2015

JOLTS, Labor Market Conditions Index continue to show a maturing expansion

 -  by New Deal democrat

Two jobs-related releases yesterday and today continue to show decelerating improvement.

Yesterday the Labor Market Conditions Index was released.  This has an excellent long term record of forecasting the direction of YoY job growth.  Here is the long term view:

Here is the short-term view over the last 10 years:

While the Index improved in the last month, the rate of change was the worst in 3 years bar 2 months earlier this year:

The YoY% change in jobs growth also declined to a new low after its likely February 2015 cycle high.

Turning to this morning's JOLTS report for October, it was something of a mirror image of last month: openings declined, but actual hires and quits improved.

Here is the long term view since the inception of the series:

The pattern looks increasingly like that of ~2006 in the last cycle.

There was some limited good news in that both hires and quits turned ever so slightly positive YoY:

But this YoY level is well below that of the last 2 years.

Quits did tie a record for this expansion:

And hires seem to have a slight improving trend, although this month's level did not set a record.

Although - barring another upward surge in the US$ - I do not see any recession in the near future, the jobs market shows accumulating signs of a maturing expansion.