Friday, October 16, 2015

Inndustrial production ex-Oil Patch

 - by New Deal democrat

By now I'm sure you know that industrial production not only declined again in September, but has also failed to make a new high in almost a year.

But what happens when we remove mining and utilities, and focus on manufacturing?  Here's what happens:

Manufacturing (blue) continues to be in an uptrend, although it is slightly off (-0.3) of its high two months ago, which is actually pretty darned good considering the strong dollar.

Yes the US is in a shallow industrial recession. But it is focused and limited, and hasn't translated into any downdraft in the consumer economy (see: real retail sales) which is 70% of the total.