This may be the month unemployment finally falls below 6%

 - by New Deal democrat

I have a new post up at XE.com.

As you probably remember from past posts of mine, the ratio of initial jobless claims to the population is a pretty decent short leading indicator for the direction of the unemployment rate.

With July and August initial jobless claims in the vicinity of 300,000 and even less, we should finally cross to below the 6% threshold - i.e., a more "normal" unemployment rate - in the next several months.  Maybe even this Friday.