Even with the shutdown of the United States government and the threat of
a default coming to an end, the cost of Congress’s gridlock has already
run well into the billions, economists estimate. And the total will
continue to grow even after the shutdown ends, partly because of
uncertainty about whether lawmakers might reach another deadlock early
next year.
A complete accounting will take months once the government reopens and
the Treasury resumes adding to the country’s debt. But economists said
that the intransigence of House Republicans would take a bite out of
fourth-quarter growth, which will affect employment, business earnings
and borrowing costs. The ripple from Washington will be felt around the
globe.
“We saw huge effects during the summer of 2011, with consumer confidence
hitting a 31-year low in August and third-quarter G.D.P. growing just
1.4 percent,” said Beth Ann Bovino, chief United States economist at
Standard & Poor’s, referring to earlier brinkmanship over the debt
ceiling. “Given that this round of debt ceiling negotiations” took place
during a shutdown, she said, “the impact on the economy could be even
more severe.”
