Friday, August 9, 2013

US GDP Growth Since 2009; Investment

The above chart shows the quarter to quarter percentage change in GDP and the contribution from investment.  Here we see a somewhat spottier contribution rate.  There are five quarters where investment contracted-- obviously slowing growth -- and several quarters where investment's contribution was a fairly small. 

The above chart shows the percentage contribution of non-residential (business) investment.  Commercial real estate (dark blue) was negative until 2Q10.  However, once it turned positive it still didn't add much to overall growth.  Equipment (gold) added a great deal to growth for 6 of the 7 quarters mid-way through the expansion.  However, this type of investment dropped off in the last 6-7 quarters.  IP added a touch, but very little overall.

Residential investment can be broken down into two periods.  For the first half of the recovery we see a strong contraction for obvious reasons.  However, for the last seven quarters we see a decent amount of growth in this area.

Overall investment,  as shown in the top chart, has been fair this recovery.  All of the various components have done their part.  However, the overall level is still a bit low at the macro level.