- by New Deal democrat
Paul Krugman, yesterday:
So as I see it, we should first of all be evaluating models, not individuals; obviously we need people to interpret thosePaul Krugman, October 13, 2009:
entrailsmodels, but we’re looking for the right economic framework ....
So, as I’ve made very clear on this blog, my view is that a pretty standard IS-LMish macro model has done very well in recent years.
[T]his is a really, really bad time to be relying on conventional indicators.Perhaps others will disabuse me, but it seems clear to me that this is:
So historical correlations, to the extent that they exist — and as Shedlock points out, ECRI is claiming a much better record than it really has — can’t be counted on to prevail. There’s really no alternative to making fundamental analyses of the macro situation.
- (a) a direct contradiction, on
- (b) a pretty fundamental point.
P.S. In 2009 ECRI responded to Krugman, making a gentleman's bet that one year later they would be proven more right than Shedlock. I kept track, and ECRI won the bet.